Analysis and visualization of meteorological extremes in humid subtropical regions

Brij Kishor Pandey (), Deepak Khare, Harinarayan Tiwari and Prabhash Kumar Mishra
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Brij Kishor Pandey: Birla Institute of Technology & Science Pilani - Dubai Campus
Deepak Khare: Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee
Harinarayan Tiwari: Floodkon Consultants LLP
Prabhash Kumar Mishra: National Institute of Hydrology

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2021, vol. 108, issue 1, No 28, 687 pages

Abstract: Abstract Understanding the variability in extreme meteorological events due to climate change and anthropogenic activities is crucial to ensure sustainable development. In this paper, the variation in precipitation and temperature in the Upper Narmada Basin (UNB), a humid subtropical region of central India, during 1901–2002, was analyzed using the Mann-Kendall (MK) test with the Sen’s slope (SS) estimator and innovative trend analysis (ITA). As a result, a significant negative trend in the annual precipitation occurred at two stations (12.5%) in the UNB, whereas no well-defined significant seasonal trends were detected. Moreover, in the annual mean temperature, a significant increasing trend occurred in the basin, with the highest and lowest rates of 0.470 °C/10 year and 0.287 °C/10 year, respectively. The seasonal temperature exhibited a significant increasing trend in the spring and autumn seasons. The trends in the extreme values were investigated using the ITA method. Furthermore, a quantitative study was carried out to measure the suitability of the ITA by comparing it with nonparametric methods (the MK test and SS estimator). The results endorse the reliability of the ITA method and show strong agreement between the trends and statistics of the parametric (ITA) and nonparametric approaches. To visualize the extreme events in meteorological series, a discrete wavelet transform (DWT) was employed with the Daubechies (db3) mother wavelet. In addition, change points were detected using the sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) and cumulative sum (CUSUM) tests. Significant change points in the annual precipitation were detected at nine stations (56.25%) during 1955–1958, while only three stations (18.75%) exhibited the annual mean temperature during 1960. The findings of this study could provide support to understand the variability in the meteorological trend over the basin and can help with water resource planning in future development.

Keywords: Precipitation; Temperature; Innovative trend analysis; Discrete wavelet transform; Mann-Kendall (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04700-1

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