A new approach for a drought composite index

Raissa Zurli Bittencourt Bravo, Ana Paula Martins do Amaral Cunha, Adriana Leiras () and Fernando Luiz Cyrino Oliveira
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Raissa Zurli Bittencourt Bravo: Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Ana Paula Martins do Amaral Cunha: National Center for Monitoring and Early Warnings of Natural Disasters – CEMADEN
Adriana Leiras: Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Fernando Luiz Cyrino Oliveira: Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2021, vol. 108, issue 1, No 32, 755-773

Abstract: Abstract Drought is one of the most critical meteorological hazards that has a devastating effect on natural habitats, ecosystems, and many economic and social sectors. Due to these severe impacts of drought events, many studies have focused on drought monitoring, prediction, and risk analysis to aid drought preparedness plans and mitigation measures. This paper presents a new drought composite index (DCI) to measure the intensity and frequency of the hazard component of meteorological drought. The DCI considers multiple indicators, such as precipitation, temperature, evapotranspiration, wind speed, relative humidity, and sunshine duration. The DCI is validated through an application to the Brazilian semiarid context. Based on the expert's opinion, we define the weight of each indicator using the analytical hierarchy process. The results were compared with two other drought indices to provide an initial validation because the other indices are not exclusively meteorological indices. The DCI estimates for January 2019 show that the semiarid central region is the most critical. The findings also indicate that the drought intensity is growing in this region.

Keywords: Composite index; Drought; Hazard; AHP; Brazil (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04704-x

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