Study of landslide geological hazard prediction method based on probability migration

Shanchao Jiang ()
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Shanchao Jiang: Yancheng Institute of Technology

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2021, vol. 108, issue 2, No 16, 1753-1762

Abstract: Abstract Based on construction of landslide displacement field detection system in Heifangtai (Lanzhou, China), landslide geological hazard prediction method based on probability migration is proposed and verified in this paper. In the hardware of landslide displacement field detection system, there are five diction points which contain 15 fiber Bragg grating (FBG) displacement sensors, and the data of detection point 1 m1 m2 and m3 are chosen as sample to complete data analyses. After data analyses, the future trend state of m1 is ‘S’ due to that state transition probability Pm111 > Pm113 > Pm112, m2 is ‘S’ due to that Pm211 > Pm212 > Pm213, and m3 is ‘S’ due to that Pm311 > Pm312 = Pm313. The future trend state prediction is highly consistent with the actual measured data and field observation results. These results of data analyses show that the proposed prediction method in this paper can realize effective prediction of landslide state and has important practical value for landslide prediction.

Keywords: Landslide; State prediction; Field detection system; FBG; Probability migration (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04754-1

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