Assessing statistical hurricane risks: nonlinear regression and time-window analysis of North Atlantic annual accumulated cyclonic energy rank profile

Elio Roca-Flores () and Gerardo G. Naumis
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Elio Roca-Flores: UNAM
Gerardo G. Naumis: UNAM

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2021, vol. 108, issue 3, No 4, 2455-2465

Abstract: Abstract The ranking of events is a powerful tool to evaluate risks of catastrophic events. Here we analyze the rank-statistical profile of the North Atlantic annual accumulated cyclone energy index (ACE), which is an estimation of the cyclonic activity energy. After fitting several functions using nonlinear regression, we found that the ranking of accumulated cyclonic energy can be slightly best described by some functions rather than by the beta-like (Cocho) function. However, this last function has been widely used in dynamical systems as forcing and dissipation effects are provided by the distribution parameters. Therefore, the present work allows to statistically evaluate the risks associated with tropical hurricanes as well as the statistical combined effects of the forcing and dissipation due to the Coriolis force, moisture, sea surface temperature, sea level pressure, shear and upper troposphere convergence. The results suggest that dissipation and forcing dominate the variability of cyclonic activity and such forces are anticorrelated. As a conclusion, it is found that a period of abnormal high risk is occurring since 1995 in accordance with the hurricane thermal engine theory for a sea surface warming due to global warming.

Keywords: Accumulated cyclonic energy; North Atlantic; Tropical cyclone; Time window; Ranking; Beta-like Cocho distribution; 62M10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04813-7

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