An integrated framework of coastal flood modelling under the failures of sea dikes: a case study in Shanghai

Qian Ke (), Jiangshan Yin (), Jeremy D. Bricker (), Nicholas Savage (), Erasmo Buonomo (), Qinghua Ye (), Paul Visser (), Guangtao Dong (), Shuai Wang (), Zhan Tian (), Laixiang Sun (), Ralf Toumi () and Sebastiaan N. Jonkman ()
Additional contact information
Qian Ke: Delft University of Technology
Jiangshan Yin: Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute
Jeremy D. Bricker: Delft University of Technology
Nicholas Savage: Met Office Hadley Centre
Erasmo Buonomo: Met Office Hadley Centre
Qinghua Ye: Delft University of Technology
Paul Visser: Delft University of Technology
Guangtao Dong: Shanghai Meteorological Service
Shuai Wang: Imperial College London
Zhan Tian: Southern University of Science and Technology
Laixiang Sun: University of Maryland
Ralf Toumi: Imperial College London
Sebastiaan N. Jonkman: Delft University of Technology

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2021, vol. 109, issue 1, No 29, 703 pages

Abstract: Abstract Climate change leads to sea level rise worldwide, as well as increases in the intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones (TCs). Storm surge induced by TC’s, together with spring tides, threatens to cause failure of flood defenses, resulting in massive flooding in low-lying coastal areas. However, limited research has been done on the combined effects of the increasing intensity of TCs and sea level rise on the characteristics of coastal flooding due to the failure of sea dikes. This paper investigates the spatial variation of coastal flooding due to the failure of sea dikes subject to past and future TC climatology and sea level rise, via a case study of a low-lying deltaic city- Shanghai, China. Using a hydrodynamic model and a spectral wave model, storm tide and wave parameters were calculated as input for an empirical model of overtopping discharge rate. The results show that the change of storm climatology together with relative sea level rise (RSLR) largely exacerbates the coastal hazard for Shanghai in the future, in which RSLR is likely to have a larger effect than the TC climatology change on future coastal flooding in Shanghai. In addition, the coastal flood hazard will increase to a large extent in terms of the flood water volume for each corresponding given return period. The approach developed in this paper can also be utilized to investigate future flood risk for other low-lying coastal regions.

Keywords: Tropical cyclone; Sea level rise; Climate change; Coastal flooding; Dike failure (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04853-z

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