Influence of water vapor distribution on the simulated track of Typhoon Hato (2017)

Jiaxin Chen (), Chuying Mai (), Mingsen Zhou (), Shumin Chen (), Weibiao Li (), Rong Fang () and Zhongkuo Zhao ()
Additional contact information
Jiaxin Chen: Sun Yat-sen University
Chuying Mai: Sun Yat-sen University
Mingsen Zhou: Sun Yat-sen University
Shumin Chen: Sun Yat-sen University
Weibiao Li: Sun Yat-sen University
Rong Fang: Sun Yat-sen University
Zhongkuo Zhao: China Meteorological Administration

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2021, vol. 109, issue 3, No 16, 2363-2380

Abstract: Abstract Predicting tropical cyclone (TCs) tracks is a primary concern in TC forecasting. Some TCs appear to move in a direction favorable for their development, beyond the influence of the steering flow. Thus, we hypothesize that TCs move toward regions with high water-vapor content in the lower atmosphere. In this study, four numerical experiments, including a control experiment and three sensitivity experiments, were performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, to analyze the relationship between water vapor distribution and the track of Severe Typhoon Hato (2017). Observations validated the features reproduced in the control experiment. The sensitivity experiments were conducted to explore variations in the TC track under different water vapor environments. Results indicate that the horizontal distribution of water-vapor content exerted a greater impact on the TC track than the steering flow when both factors were significant. Further analysis revealed that the TC’s movement vector was between the direction of the steering flow and the direction toward the peak of vorticity increasing area. The peaks of vorticity increasing area were close to the peaks of water vapor increasing area, which also proved the effect of water vapor distribution on the TC track. These results are expected to improve TC track analysis and forecasting.

Keywords: Tropical cyclone; Track; Water vapor distribution; Steering flow; Numerical simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-021-04923-2 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:109:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-021-04923-2

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11069

DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04923-2

Access Statistics for this article

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards is currently edited by Thomas Glade, Tad S. Murty and Vladimír Schenk

More articles in Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards from Springer, International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().