Near-epicenter weather conditions several hours before strong earthquakes (Ms ≥ 6)

Tao Chen, Lei Li (), Xiao-Xin Zhang, Qi-Ming Ma, Wen Li, Shuo Ti, Han Wu, Ren-Kang Li, Jing Luo and Jian-Feng Su
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Tao Chen: National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Lei Li: National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Xiao-Xin Zhang: National Center for Space Weather, China Meteorological Administration
Qi-Ming Ma: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Wen Li: National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Shuo Ti: National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Han Wu: National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Ren-Kang Li: Yunnan Normal University
Jing Luo: National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Jian-Feng Su: National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2022, vol. 110, issue 1, No 3, 57-68

Abstract: Abstract Physical phenomena observed before strong earthquakes have been reported for centuries. Precursor signals, which include radon anomalies, electrical signals, water level changes and ground lights near the epicenter, can all be used for earthquake prediction. Anomalous negative signals observed by ground-based atmospheric electric field instruments under fair weather conditions constitute a novel earthquake prediction approach. In theory, the abnormal radiation of heat before an earthquake produces fair weather around the epicenter. To determine the near-epicenter weather conditions prior to an earthquake, 81 global earthquake events with magnitudes of 6 or above from 2008 to 2021 were collected. According to Harrison's fair weather criteria, in 81.48% of all statistical cases, the weather was fair 6 h before the earthquake; in 62.96% of all cases, the weather was fair 24 h before the event. Moreover, most of these cases without fair weather several hours before the earthquake were near the sea. Among the 37 inland earthquakes, 86.49% were preceded by 6 h of fair weather, and 70.27% were preceded by fair weather for 24 h. We conclude that the weather near the epicenter might be fair for several hours before a strong earthquake, especially for inland events.

Keywords: Weather condition; Earthquake; Several hours; Fair (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04907-2

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