A new model for the quantitative assessment of earthquake casualties based on the correction of anti-lethal level

Xia Chaoxu (), Nie Gaozhong (), Fan Xiwei (), Li Huayue (), Zhou Junxue () and Zeng Xun ()
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Xia Chaoxu: China Earthquake Administration
Nie Gaozhong: China Earthquake Administration
Fan Xiwei: China Earthquake Administration
Li Huayue: China Earthquake Administration
Zhou Junxue: China Earthquake Administration
Zeng Xun: China Earthquake Administration

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2022, vol. 110, issue 2, No 17, 1199-1226

Abstract: Abstract The timely and accurate assessment of casualties is the key for and basis of emergency rescue work after an earthquake. In this paper, through exponential fitting of historical seismic data, an evaluation model of death based on the building destruction ratio is proposed. Through the analysis of historical seismic data, we propose the concept of an anti-lethal level and construct the corresponding coefficient. We use factors such as earthquake magnitude, intensity, and occurrence time, the population density, and the anti-lethal level in the region as correction factors for the predicted number of casualties and build a model for evaluating the number of casualties based on coefficient correction. The evaluation results are relatively accurate; the R2 index of the proposed model is 0.8768, whereas the R2 of the two comparison models selected in this paper is 0.619 and 0.4603, respectively. The accuracy of the proposed model results is much higher than that of the other models, which illustrates the effectiveness of the model presented in this paper. It also indicates that the model proposed in this paper can provide a scientific basis and data support for earthquake emergency rescue work.

Keywords: Earthquake casualty assessment; Influencing factors; Anti-lethal level; Correction factors; Validation tests; Chinese historical earthquakes (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04988-z

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