Verification of two hydrological models for real-time flood forecasting in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region

Karma Tsering, Manish Shrestha (), Kiran Shakya, Birendra Bajracharya, Mir Matin, Jorge Luis Sanchez Lozano, Jim Nelson, Tandin Wangchuk, Binod Parajuli and Md Arifuzzaman Bhuyan
Additional contact information
Karma Tsering: International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development
Manish Shrestha: International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development
Kiran Shakya: International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development
Birendra Bajracharya: International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development
Mir Matin: International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development
Jorge Luis Sanchez Lozano: Brigham Young University
Jim Nelson: Brigham Young University
Tandin Wangchuk: National Center for Hydrology and Meteorology
Binod Parajuli: Department of Hydrology and Meteorology
Md Arifuzzaman Bhuyan: BWDB

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2022, vol. 110, issue 3, No 19, 1845 pages

Abstract: Abstract The Hindu Kush Himalayan region is extremely susceptible to periodic monsoon floods. Early warning systems with the ability to predict floods in advance can benefit tens of millions of people living in the region. Two web-based flood forecasting tools (ECMWF-SPT and HIWAT-SPT) are therefore developed and deployed jointly by SERVIR-HKH and NASA-AST to provide early warning to Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Nepal. ECMWF-SPT provides ensemble forecast up to 15-day lead time, whereas HIWAT-SPT provides deterministic forecast up to 3-day lead time covering almost 100% of the rivers. Hydrological models in conjunction with forecast validation contribute not only to advancing the processes of a forecasting system, but also objectively assess the joint distribution of forecasts and observations in quantifying forecast accuracy. The validation of forecast products has emerged as a priority need to evaluate the worth of the predictive information in terms of quality and consistency. This paper describes the effort made in developing the hydrological forecast systems, the current state of the flood forecast services, and the performance of the forecast evaluation. Both tools are validated using a selection of appropriate metrics in measurement in both probabilistic and deterministic space. The numerical metrics are further complemented by graphical representations of scores and probabilities. It was found that the models had a good performance in capturing high flood events. The evaluation across multiple locations indicates that the model performance and forecast goodness are variable on spatiotemporal scale. The resulting information is used to support good decision-making in risk and resource management.

Keywords: Early warning system; GLoFAS-SPT; Forecast validation; Hindu Kush Himalayan; HIWAT-SPT (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-05014-y

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