Risk assessment of coal and gas outburst in driving face based on finite interval cloud model

Guorui Zhang, Enyuan Wang (), Zhonghui Li and Ben Qin
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Guorui Zhang: China University of Mining and Technology
Enyuan Wang: China University of Mining and Technology
Zhonghui Li: China University of Mining and Technology
Ben Qin: China University of Mining and Technology

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2022, vol. 110, issue 3, No 26, 1969-1995

Abstract: Abstract Coal and gas outburst is one of the main disasters that seriously threaten workers’ safety during coal production. Timely identification and evaluation of the potential outburst before tunneling helps to implement the targeted control measures. Nevertheless, the influencing factors of outburst are so complex that there is no suitable index system and evaluation method available yet. In this paper, a more reasonable and complete index system (three categories of factors and 16 indicators) for outburst risk is established, in which, the risk level is divided into three levels. Then, the triangular fuzzy numbers are adopted to quantify the indicators and the logarithmic fuzzy preference programming method to calculate the weight. The cloud distribution under finite interval processing is generated based on cloud numerical characters of each indicator. In addition, the risk level is determined according to the calculation results of multi-index comprehensive membership degree. Finally, the entire evaluation system is applied to two excavated coal roadways for experiments, which show that the finite interval cloud model delivers a more objective and reasonable risk assessment. Five potential outburst threat areas of 58 excavation cycles evaluated show different degrees of outburst dynamic appearance, indicating a good relationship between the evaluation results and the actual risk. This method effectively considers the fuzziness and randomness between indexes, and it is able to classify outburst risk effectively, providing insights for the scientific and accurate assessment of such risks in front of the driving face.

Keywords: Coal and gas outburst; Risk assessment; Finite interval cloud model; Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process; Logarithmic fuzzy preference programming (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-05021-z

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