Dynamic selection of emergency plans of geological disaster based on case-based reasoning and prospect theory

Xin Yao (), Hai-xiang Guo, Jian Zhu and Yong Shi
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Xin Yao: China University of Geosciences
Hai-xiang Guo: China University of Geosciences
Jian Zhu: China University of Geosciences
Yong Shi: China University of Geosciences

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2022, vol. 110, issue 3, No 38, 2249-2275

Abstract: Abstract The Three Gorges reservoir area in the Yangtze River economic belt has frequent geological disasters. To assist decision-makers make effective emergency decisions based on their experience, this paper proposes a dynamic geological disaster emergency plan selection scheme based on case-based reasoning and prospect theory. Geological information and data of disaster sites in the Three Gorges reservoir area are collected from the China Geological Environment Monitoring Institute and China Geological Survey of the Ministry of Natural Resources. First, historical geological disasters are analyzed to extract the gene structure characteristics and develop a gene library, from which geological and economic disaster indicators are selected. The indicator values are then divided into several intervals according to their corresponding distributions, which are then processed with a pruning method. Prospect theory is applied to compensate for the differences in decision-making, for which comprehensive foreground values and rank schemes are calculated. A comparison is made between the proposed method and other methods, besides, the Zigui County landslide in Hubei Province is taken as an example to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.

Keywords: Emergency plan; Interval division; Case-based reasoning; Psychological behavior; Prospect theory (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-05036-6

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