BRAMS model performance for significant event involving Brazilian platform ship

Karine dos Santos Rodrigues (), Luiz Felipe Rodrigues do Carmo (), Ana Cristina Pinto de Almeida Palmeira () and Marcelo Andrioni ()
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Karine dos Santos Rodrigues: Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), Cidade Universitária - Ilha do Fundão
Luiz Felipe Rodrigues do Carmo: Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), Cidade Universitária - Ilha do Fundão
Ana Cristina Pinto de Almeida Palmeira: Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), Cidade Universitária - Ilha do Fundão
Marcelo Andrioni: Leopoldo Américo Miguez de Mello (CENPES) - PETROBRAS, Cidade Universitária - Ilha do Fundão

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2022, vol. 110, issue 3, No 39, 2277-2302

Abstract: Abstract After a storm displaced the P-70 platform ship located in Guanabara Bay to the coast on January 30, 2020, a numerical investigation was carried out with the BRAMS (Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) model to analyze the model performance in a newest version (v.5.3). In order to verify which parameterizations would be able to better characterize the winds and precipitation, it was used as methodology the comparison and correlation between the winds of the BRAMS model with METAR (METeorological Aerodrome Report) data from SBRJ (Santos Dumont Airport) and SBGL (Rio de Janeiro International Airport/Galeão) and also compared with ERA-5 reanalysis (5th Generation of ECMWF ReAnalysis) data. A series of sensitivity tests in the BRAMS model was focused on the parameterization of cloud microphysics, as well as on the different temporal resolutions of the sea surface temperature (SST). The results demonstrated that there had been an improvement in the characterization of winds and precipitation after the insertion of weekly SST as an initial condition instead of climatology. Furthermore, the Greg Thompson cloud water double moment and aerosol aware scheme (with the insertion of the weekly SST) presented the best correlations. However, the statistical analyzes of the temporal evolution of the wind magnitude and direction from BRAMS and the ERA-5 reanalysis underestimated the wind values observed by neighboring airports (SBGL and SBRJ), although they reproduced the increasing and decreasing trends observed in the series.

Keywords: Numerical modeling; BRAMS; Cloud microphysics; SST; P-70 FPSO; Platform ship (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-05037-5

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