Reliability framework for characterizing heat wave and cold spell events

Sanaz Moghim () and Mohammad Sina Jahangir
Additional contact information
Sanaz Moghim: Sharif University of Technology
Mohammad Sina Jahangir: University of Waterloo

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2022, vol. 112, issue 2, No 20, 1503-1525

Abstract: Abstract Extreme weather events such as heat waves and cold spells affect people’s lives. This study develops a probabilistic framework to evaluate heat waves and cold spells. As case studies, average daily temperatures of meteorological stations of the two cities (Tehran and Vancouver) from 1995 to 2016 are used to identify four main indicators including intensity, average intensity, duration, and the rate of the occurrence. In addition, probabilistic spatial analysis of the events is obtained through MODIS’s land surface temperature product. To include possible uncertainties, the predictive probability distributions of the intensity and duration are derived using a Bayesian scheme and Monte Carlo Markov Chain method. The probability distributions of the indicators show that the most extreme temperature (lowest temperature) occurs during the cold spell. Reliability evaluations indicate that both cities are more likely to be affected by the cold spell than the heat wave. Results of this study can be used as a benchmark for heat wave/cold spell characterization. The developed approach can be applied to characterize other extreme weather events in any location.

Keywords: Reliability analysis; Bayesian approach; Extreme weather events; Heat wave; Cold spell; Climate indicators (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-022-05236-8 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:112:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-022-05236-8

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11069

DOI: 10.1007/s11069-022-05236-8

Access Statistics for this article

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards is currently edited by Thomas Glade, Tad S. Murty and Vladimír Schenk

More articles in Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards from Springer, International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().