An integrated quantitative framework to assess the impacts of disaster-inducing factors on causing urban flood

Chao Ma (), Wenchao Qi, Hongshi Xu and Kai Zhao
Additional contact information
Chao Ma: Tianjin University
Wenchao Qi: Tianjin University
Hongshi Xu: Zhengzhou University
Kai Zhao: Tianjin University

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2022, vol. 113, issue 3, No 22, 1903-1924

Abstract: Abstract Urban floods are significantly affected by interactions between the temporal and spatial variability of rainfall and catchment characteristics. However, it is unclear how the influencing factors interact with each other in the form of a factor chain to affect the flood generation in urban areas. This study contributes to discussion of key disaster-inducing factors by proposing an integrated quantitative framework based on a tracer-aided urban flood model. First, a tracer-aided model is adopted to simulate flood process for different design return periods. Then, based on the simulation results, the flood volume contribution of the source area (where flooding is generated) to the flood hazard area (where flooding impacts) was determined. Finally, through the variation partition analysis (VPA) approach and a structural equation model (SEM), the key disaster-inducing factor chains and influence strength that affects the flood volume in the flood source area were quantitatively determined. Longkungou drainage district of Haikou City was selected as the study area, for which the simulations were performed to calculate source area flood volume, and the disaster-inducing factor that caused the urban flooding were quantitatively assessed. The results show that the influencing factors interact with each other in the form of a factor chain and affect the flood volume generation in the flood source area. For the key disaster-inducing factor chains based on SEM, rainfall affects flooding inundation and the influence strength is 0.75, while pipe density is the key factor in mitigating flood volume, and the influence strength is 0.32, which is influenced by the impervious area ratio. In addition, compared to the small return period of rainfall storm events, for scenarios with greater rainfall intensity, the influence strength of the catchment characteristics on the cause of floods is reduced. The framework proposed in this study can be used to find key disaster-causing factor chains, which quantitatively reveals the cause of urban flooding and provides a reference for improving early warning systems.

Keywords: Urban flood; Tracer-aided urban flood model; Disaster-inducing factors; Numerical modeling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-022-05375-y Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:113:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-022-05375-y

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11069

DOI: 10.1007/s11069-022-05375-y

Access Statistics for this article

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards is currently edited by Thomas Glade, Tad S. Murty and Vladimír Schenk

More articles in Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards from Springer, International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().