Analysis of the post-earthquake economic recovery of the most severely affected areas in the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake

Pengyu Chen ()
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Pengyu Chen: Neijiang Normal University

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2022, vol. 114, issue 3, No 10, 2633-2655

Abstract: Abstract In this study, the post-earthquake economic recovery of the most severely affected areas in the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake is analyzed. First, a new analysis method that uses the economic data in Sichuan Province as the comparison standard is proposed. Then, based on the economic data of the most severely affected areas and Sichuan Province from 2003 to 2019, the post-earthquake economic recovery of the most severely affected areas is analyzed, and the results of the analysis are compared with those of the synthetic control method and the gray prediction model. Finally, the recovery path and its influencing factors are analyzed. The main findings are as follows: (1) The recovery of the post-earthquake economy varies among regions. Only the GDP per capita of An County and Pengzhou City had recovered to the pre-earthquake level by 2019. (2) The proposed method is highly similar to the synthetic control method in determining the recovery process and recovery time of the post-earthquake economy but differs significantly from the gray prediction model in the results of the analysis of the long-run economic recovery. (3) The post-earthquake economic recovery of the most severely affected areas shows a variety of recovery paths. The rapid and gradual decrease in the normalized gross investment in fixed assets (GIFA) per capita after the reconstruction period led to the economic recovery of the most severely affected areas into different recovery paths, and the significant increase in the normalized GIFA per capita and normalized retail sales of consumer goods (RSCG) per capita may lead to economic recovery breaking the equilibrium state and entering a new recovery path. Some discussions on the comparison of the proposed method, the synthetic control method and gray prediction model are also given as well as the economic recovery path.

Keywords: Post-earthquake economic recovery; Wenchuan earthquake; Most severely affected areas; Pre-earthquake level (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-022-05483-9

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