Developing landslide hazard scenario using the historical events for the Kashmir Himalaya

Bilquis Shah (), M. Sultan Bhat (), Akhtar Alam (), Hilal Ahmad Sheikh () and Noureen Ali ()
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Bilquis Shah: University of Kashmir
M. Sultan Bhat: University of Kashmir
Akhtar Alam: University of Kashmir
Hilal Ahmad Sheikh: University of Kashmir
Noureen Ali: University of Kashmir

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2022, vol. 114, issue 3, No 58, 3763-3785

Abstract: Abstract Landslides are globally ranked one of the deadliest natural hazards. However, there is a consensus among researchers that the overall occurrences and consequences of landslides are usually underestimated. Absence of comprehensive local or national databases in the historical archives about the landslide events leads to underestimations and misinterpretations of impending landslide hazard and susceptibilities in a region. Jammu and Kashmir is locus of landslide hazard; the region is characterised by mountainous terrain and complex geology, extensive unstable and tectonically active slopes, providing favourable environment for the landslide occurrence, particularly along the National Highway (NH-44) that is critical to region’s connectivity with the rest of India. However, limited information available on the historical landslides hampers the development of a reliable landslide catalogue for the region. In view of that, the present study focuses on retrieving information on landslide events and their impacts to develop a comprehensive database for the time period of 1990–2020 for Jammu and Kashmir, with a special focus on the Udhampur–Banihal section of the Jammu–Srinagar National Highway (NH-44). This analysis compiled a list of 960 landslide events from a range of secondary sources reported for the area during the selected time period. A hotspot analysis was also performed to understand the spatial distribution and concentration of the landslide events across the region. The annual and seasonal analysis of the events suggests an increasing trend. Moreover, the results reveal that a total of 1000 fatalities and 267 injuries occurred during this period. Out of 20 districts, 16 exhibit relatively higher exposure levels to the landslide hazard and the induced socioeconomic impacts. Most affects were found to have been experienced along the NH-44 with 1234 estimated occurrences reported in 260 days in the past three decades. The catalogue of landslide events and their impacts developed in this study is valuable for the development of landslide early warning system and other landslide hazard mitigation measures for the region.

Keywords: Kashmir Himalaya; NH-44; Landslides; Early warning; Hotspot analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-022-05542-1

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