Flood response to urban expansion in the Lushui River Basin

Shixiong Yan, Yuannan Long (), Huaiguang He, Xiaofeng Wen, Qian Lv and Moruo Zheng
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Shixiong Yan: Changsha University of Science & Technology
Yuannan Long: Changsha University of Science & Technology
Huaiguang He: Hunan Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research
Xiaofeng Wen: Changsha University of Science & Technology
Qian Lv: Changsha University of Science & Technology
Moruo Zheng: Changsha University of Science & Technology

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2023, vol. 115, issue 1, No 30, 779-805

Abstract: Abstract This study used a cellular automata Markov model (CA–Markov) to predict future urban expansion scenarios in the Lushui River Basin and a Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran flood model (HSPF) to simulate the flood process. Flood trends were analyzed based on both measured and simulated data, and the flood response to urban expansion was characterized. This study had four main conclusions. (1) The HSPF and CA–Markov models accurately simulated flood processes and urban expansion in Lushui River Basin. (2) The area of construction land in the basin has continued to increase since 1980. Based on current development rules, 22% of the basin will be construction land by 2048. Therefore, land-use planning policies must be strengthened, and the utilization of rural lands must be increased, to help slow the growth of constructed land areas. (3) Urban expansion in the Lushui River Basin has increased the flood runoff depth by about 1–3% and peak discharge by about 6–18%. The magnitude of the impact was related to the return period of the flood: Floods with a shorter return period are more strongly impacted by urban expansion. (4) Compared with the current development model, the three future scenarios for 2048, obtained after strengthening land-use planning policies, all have the effect of reducing floods. Integrating scattered villages, ensuring basic farmland areas, and returning some farmlands to forests most significantly reduced flood impact.

Keywords: Urban expansion; Lushui River Basin; HSPF model; Flood; CA–Markov model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-022-05574-7

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