Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for western Makran coasts, south-east Iran

Hamid Zafarani, Leila Etemadsaeed (), Mohammad Rahimi, Navid Kheirdast, Amin Rashidi, Anooshiravan Ansari, Mohammad Mokhtari and Morteza Eskandari-Ghadi
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Hamid Zafarani: International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES)
Leila Etemadsaeed: International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES)
Mohammad Rahimi: University of Tehran
Navid Kheirdast: International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES)
Amin Rashidi: Université Savoie Mont Blanc
Anooshiravan Ansari: International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES)
Mohammad Mokhtari: International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES)
Morteza Eskandari-Ghadi: University of Tehran

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2023, vol. 115, issue 2, No 13, 1275-1311

Abstract: Abstract Makran subduction zone, along the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan, has a wide potential seismogenic zone and may be capable of generating large magnitude (M ~ 9) tsunamigenic earthquakes. Considering ambiguities exist in tsunamigenic source characterization for subduction megathrusts like Makran, where detailed geologic, seismic, and geodetic data are insufficient, the probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) is the most prevalent approach to handle uncertainties and estimate more reliable tsunami hazard. Here, PTHA is performed for the coastal region of the western Makran, south-eastern Iran. Using the logic tree approach, we have considered the uncertainty of maximum seismic magnitude, earthquake occurrence model, continuity of seismic zone, seismic coupling coefficient, rupture depth, presence or absence of splay faults, fault locations, and fault slip distribution in PTHA calculation for the western Makran region. We have derived uniform tsunami hazard maps for two return periods of 475 and 2475 years for two confidence levels, the mean and the 84th percentile. Ground subsidence effects are also evaluated in a probabilistic manner. According to the PTHA results, Chabahar and Sirik towns are at the highest and lowest tsunami risk, respectively.

Keywords: Tsunami; Makran subduction zone; Probabilistic hazard analysis; Heterogeneous slip distribution; Earthquake recurrence (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-022-05595-2

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