Debris flow susceptibility assessment of Leh Valley, Ladakh, based on concepts of connectivity, propagation and evidence-based probability

Choudhurimayum Pankaj Sharma, Anil Kumar, Poonam Chahal, Uma Kant Shukla, Pradeep Srivastava () and Manoj K. Jaiswal
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Choudhurimayum Pankaj Sharma: Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology
Anil Kumar: Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology
Poonam Chahal: Hebrew University of Jerusalem
Uma Kant Shukla: Banaras Hindu University
Pradeep Srivastava: Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology
Manoj K. Jaiswal: Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Kolkata

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2023, vol. 115, issue 2, No 34, 1833-1859

Abstract: Abstract The Leh Valley which lies within the Trans Himalayan state of Ladakh, India, is known to be affected almost annually by debris flows ranging from minor to catastrophic scale events. The effect has been getting magnified due to increased urbanization and rapid growth in tourism industry. Though these flows are triggered by intense and abnormal rainfall events the conditioning factor has always been the topography and sediment availability. A lucid acknowledgement of the terrain condition and the degree of vulnerability of such events is required. For this a detail investigation of sediment availability, topographic conditions and their relation with known events becomes crucial. This study utilizes index of connectivity (IC) model to understand the sediment source-sink relationship and farther applied Flow-R model to simulate the probable scenario of events through predefined algorithms. We then use the Weights of evidence (WOE) method to compute the statistical probability of debris flow occurrence. This paper demonstrates the application of these three independent techniques and their implementation in a highly rugged terrain of Ladakh which is a region of frequent debris flows onslaught. The IC and Flow-R models are found to be counter supportive and effective in delineating areas which could be affected by flows that will solely originate in upstream areas where high angle channels directly connected to sediment sources are present. WOE-based model determines the probability of the rare and extensive flows that results from downward integration of other drainage networks in an open fan area.

Keywords: Debris flows; Susceptibility assessment; Ladakh; Index of connectivity; Flow-R; Weights of evidence (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-022-05619-x

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