Exploring the road icing risk: considering the dependence of icing-inducing factors

Qiang Liu, Aiping Tang (), Zhongyue Wang and Buyue Zhao
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Qiang Liu: Harbin Institute of Technology, Nangang Dist
Aiping Tang: Harbin Institute of Technology, Nangang Dist
Zhongyue Wang: Harbin Institute of Technology, Nangang Dist
Buyue Zhao: Beijing Jiaotong University

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2023, vol. 115, issue 3, No 14, 2178 pages

Abstract: Abstract This study reports a method to explore the icing risk of roads considering the dynamic dependence between icing-inducing factors. The joint distribution of inducing factors was first constructed by employing the Copula theory, which then yielded the possibility of icing events. Meanwhile, hazard zones and intensities of icing were proposed under different exceeding probabilities. After finishing the analysis of road vulnerability, the risk matrix was applied to conduct the icing risk for roads in the study area, which was then applied to the construction of the risk zoning map. Results show that there is an upper-tail dependence between extreme precipitation and the temperature of the study area in winter, which can be captured by the Gumbel Copula. Besides, the line of Hegang-Yichun maintains a high vulnerability. Further, the case application indicates that during March 2020, the traffic lines with a high icing risk are distributed around Fujin, Jiamusi, Hegang, and Qitaihe cities, and the Hegang-Yichun keeps the highest icing risk; while the low-risk lines are concentrated in the western part of the study area. This study is of great significance for the prevention and control of ice-snow disasters on the roads in cold regions.

Keywords: Dependence analysis; Exceeding probability; Hazard; Road vulnerability; Transportation risk (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-022-05632-0

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