Emergency management decision of urban rainstorm and flood disasters based on similar cases analysis

Wen Li, Rengui Jiang (), Jiancang Xie, Yong Zhao, Jiwei Zhu and Siyu Yang
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Wen Li: Xi’an University of Technology
Rengui Jiang: Xi’an University of Technology
Jiancang Xie: Xi’an University of Technology
Yong Zhao: Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research
Jiwei Zhu: Xi’an University of Technology
Siyu Yang: Xi’an University of Technology

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2023, vol. 116, issue 1, No 32, 753-768

Abstract: Abstract Under the background of global climate change and rapid development of urbanization, urban extreme occurs more frequently. In consideration of the existing problems in the emergency management decision-making of urban rainstorm and flood disasters in China, this study put forward the decision-making method of urban rainstorm and flood disaster emergency management based on similar cases analysis method. Based on the evolution process of urban waterlogging disaster, the problem attribute system of urban rainstorm and flood disasters was established. The case-based reasoning (CBR) method was used to calculate the global similarity to determine the best historical case. The case-based decision theory (CBDT) method was used to calculate the comprehensive utility value of alternative cases to determine the optimal alternative cases. The empirical analysis was took in Xi'an city, one of the national center cities of China. Results show that the CBR method was used to obtain the highest similarity of historical case P3, which is 0.481. The CBDT method was used to calculate the high similarity of historical cases P3 and P4 to form the similar case set, with the similarity of 0.820 and 0.851, respectively. Combined with the event development, the comprehensive utility values were calculated. When the decision-maker pays the same attention to the emergency effect and response cost, the comprehensive utility value of P3 and P4 is 0.922 and 0.900, respectively, and P3 is the best reference scheme. By comparison, the latter is more suitable. The results can provide scientific basis for emergency management of urban rainstorm and flood disasters.

Keywords: Urban rainstorm and flood disasters; Emergency decision; Case-based reasoning; Case-based decision theory (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-022-05697-x

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