From the geodynamic aspect to earthquake potential hazard analysis of Liwa city and its surrounding

Wahyu Triyoso () and Aris Suwondo
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Wahyu Triyoso: Bandung Institute of Technology
Aris Suwondo: Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysical Agency

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2023, vol. 116, issue 1, No 56, 1329-1344

Abstract: Abstract The Liwa area is near the active shear fault of the Sumatra Fault Zone (SFZ), with a right lateral mechanism where the Kumering segment crosses this area. The geodynamic simulation results based on the pre-seismic modeling using the slip rate input of a recent study, Liwa, and its surroundings show a comparatively high compression level. The seismic moment rate estimation based on the present-day surface strain data shows alignment and consistency with the pre-seismic modeling result and the previous correlation dimension (DC) analysis. The high DC indicated that the Kumering segment indicates a relatively high-stress level. The finding also aligns with the suggestion based on the previous result that more frequent large strike-slip earthquakes occur since the recent study found that the slip is faster than the previous one. And it is consistent with the historical records; Liwa has a minimum of 3 times experienced destructive earthquakes, which occurred in 1908, 1933, and 1994. Although based on a deterministic hazard analysis point of view, the zone around the SFZ will experience the most significant ground shaking since it is close to the source. However, the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) studied around the southern part of Sumatra Island, especially in areas close to the coast boundary, shows that the shaking caused by the source of the subduction and intermediate depth is more frequent than that of the SFZ source. As the city of Liwa is located near the Kumering Segment and relatively close to the shoreline, evaluating the Seismic Hazard Function (SHF) by integrating megathrust, SFZ, and medium depth sources is necessary. The amplification analysis in the previous study using Liwa’s HVSR method showed the most considerable amplification value. Thus, this study intends to evaluate the potential for earthquake hazards based on the probability of integrated sources of megathrust, SFZ, and intermediate depth to deep and deterministic based on SFZ sources around the city of Liwa. The earthquake intensity (MMI) estimation at the surface based on the probabilistic to deterministic point of view is in the range of VI to XI. Therefore, it has the potential to reach the maximum MMI scale. The result of this study might be very beneficial in better understanding the future seismic hazard study and mitigation analysis.

Keywords: Liwa; SFZ; Megathrust; Intermediate depth to deep source; SHF; Amplification factor (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-022-05705-0

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