Development of environmental contours from rainfall intensity and duration data for slopes

Xing Zheng Wu, Chen Zhe Ma, Rui-kai Wang () and Wei Chao Li
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Xing Zheng Wu: Hebei University
Chen Zhe Ma: Hebei University
Rui-kai Wang: Hengshui University
Wei Chao Li: China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2023, vol. 116, issue 1, No 42, 1027 pages

Abstract: Abstract Rainfall is an important environmental factor affecting the stability of natural slopes. In this study, an environmental contour method is developed by incorporating the infiltration model proposed by Green and Ampt to evaluate the stability of slopes exposed to rainfall. Several environmental variables—such as rainfall intensity and rainfall duration, cohesion, and internal friction angle of soil parameters—are treated as random variables. The influence of these variables, especially their joint characteristics, on the reliability of slopes is discussed. The environmental contour is determined by specifying a target reliability index or a return period. In addition, the reliability index is derived by using the environmental contour method on the basis of the limit state function. Based on the data set pertaining to long-term rainfall observations for the Peloritani Mountains regions of Italy, the illustrative reliability analysis is performed for the hill slopes. The environmental contour in the case of multiple variables is demonstrated, and the reliability index of slope stability against sliding is obtained. The extreme slope responses are derived for the points on the environmental contour, which can be helpful for probabilistic slope stability assessment and design.

Keywords: Environmental contour method; Rainfall; Slope stability; Reliability index; Uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-022-05709-w

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