Multivariate index for monitoring drought (case study, Northeastern of Iraq)

Ihsan F. Hasan () and Rozi Abdullah
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Ihsan F. Hasan: Universiti Sains Malaysia
Rozi Abdullah: Universiti Sains Malaysia

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2023, vol. 116, issue 3, No 44, 3817-3837

Abstract: Abstract Drought analysis is important for early warning of drought events in arid and semiarid regions. Reliance on a single variable or index is not adequate to conduct a comprehensive assessment of drought risk. Therefore, the use of multivariate drought indices can provide reliable information to assess drought characteristics. This study proposes a new multivariate drought index based on the combination of effective precipitation and runoff variables. The copula function was used to derive the joint distribution of effective precipitation and runoff. The new index, named effective precipitation runoff index (EPRI), is developed by using observed hydro-meteorological time series data collected from the Northeastern region of Iraq. This procedure can be considered as an approach that enables a comprehensive assessment of different types of drought, which can be seamlessly compared with the output of standardized precipitation index (SPI), standardized runoff index (SRI) and standardized effective precipitation index (SEPI). Based on the results of goodness-of-fit test, Clayton copula was selected as the best suitable copula for constructing the EPRI. It was found that the EPRI is approximately high correlated with SEPI and SRI indices, which indicates the reliability of the modeled EPRI index for monitoring drought.

Keywords: Effective precipitation runoff index; Copula function; Drought; Greater Zab River; Lesser Zab River (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-023-05837-x

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