A pathway for multi-stage cyclone-induced hazard tracking—case study for Yaas

Atul Kumar Varma, Neeru Jaiswal (), Ayan Das, Mukesh Kumar, Nikhil V. Lele, Rojalin Tripathy, Saroj Maity, Mehul Pandya, Bimal Bhattacharya, Anup Kumar Mandal, M. Jishad, M. Seemanth, Arvind Sahay, Debojyoti Ganguly, Suchandra Aich Bhowmick, R. K. Sarangi, Neeraj Agarwal, Mini Raman, Rashmi Sharma, Vibhuti Bhushan Jha, Nimisha Singh, Rohit Pradhan, Amit K. Dubey, Shard Chander, R. P. Singh, Neerja Sharma, Shivani Shah, Ishmohan Bahuguna and Nilesh M. Desai
Additional contact information
Atul Kumar Varma: Indian Space Research Organisation
Neeru Jaiswal: Indian Space Research Organisation
Ayan Das: Indian Space Research Organisation
Mukesh Kumar: Indian Space Research Organisation
Nikhil V. Lele: Indian Space Research Organisation
Rojalin Tripathy: Indian Space Research Organisation
Saroj Maity: Indian Space Research Organisation
Mehul Pandya: Indian Space Research Organisation
Bimal Bhattacharya: Indian Space Research Organisation
Anup Kumar Mandal: Indian Space Research Organisation
M. Jishad: Indian Space Research Organisation
M. Seemanth: Indian Space Research Organisation
Arvind Sahay: Indian Space Research Organisation
Debojyoti Ganguly: Indian Space Research Organisation
Suchandra Aich Bhowmick: Indian Space Research Organisation
R. K. Sarangi: Indian Space Research Organisation
Neeraj Agarwal: Indian Space Research Organisation
Mini Raman: Indian Space Research Organisation
Rashmi Sharma: Indian Space Research Organisation
Vibhuti Bhushan Jha: Indian Space Research Organisation
Nimisha Singh: Indian Space Research Organisation
Rohit Pradhan: Indian Space Research Organisation
Amit K. Dubey: Indian Space Research Organisation
Shard Chander: Indian Space Research Organisation
R. P. Singh: Indian Space Research Organisation
Neerja Sharma: Indian Space Research Organisation
Shivani Shah: Indian Space Research Organisation
Ishmohan Bahuguna: Indian Space Research Organisation
Nilesh M. Desai: Indian Space Research Organisation

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2023, vol. 117, issue 1, No 44, 1035-1067

Abstract: Abstract A Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘Yaas’ developed over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) on 23 May 2021 and crossed over the Odisha coast on 26 May with maximum sustained wind speed of 75 kts. Herein, a pathway has been developed and exemplified for ‘Yaas’ through three-stage cyclone-induced hazard tracking. Days before the cyclone formation, cyclone genesis potential parameter, sea surface temperature (SST) (> 30 °C) and tropical cyclone heat potential (anomaly of 40–80 kJ/cm2) indicated a strong possibility of cyclogenesis in the BoB. A Lagrangian advection model used for its track prediction with 24-h lead-time provided an accuracy of ~ 19 km and ~ 6 h in its landfall location and time. Further, intensity prediction was done using numerical weather prediction model. Geostationary satellites, INSAT-3D/3DR, were used to visualize cyclone structure. Passing of cyclone had its reverbarations in oceans, which are observed in SST drop of ~ 3 °C, salinity and density increase by ~ 1 psu and ~ 2 kg/m3, respectively. During the period, 23–26 May 2021, the Ekman suction velocity and chlorophyll concentration were found significantly high at ~ 5 m/day and > 0.5 mg/m3, respectively. Forecast of storm surge was found to be between 3.5 and 4 m at coastal locations. Significant wave height was found to be 5.5–9.2 m. The coastal inundation forecast for 24 May 2021 provided its quantitative maximum inland extent. Finally, loss of the crop, fishery and forest areas by strong winds and inundation/ingress of saline water associated with storm surge were examined using SAR and optical data.

Keywords: Tropical cyclone; Satellite data; INSAT-3D; 3DR; SAR; Prediction; Impact assessment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-023-05893-3

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