Numerical modeling of a potential landslide-generated tsunami in the southern Strait of Georgia

Fatemeh Nemati (), Lucinda Leonard (), Richard Thomson (), Gwyn Lintern () and Soroush Kouhi ()
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Fatemeh Nemati: University of Victoria
Lucinda Leonard: University of Victoria
Richard Thomson: Fisheries and Oceans Canada
Gwyn Lintern: Natural Resources Canada
Soroush Kouhi: Ocean Networks Canada

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2023, vol. 117, issue 2, No 34, 2029-2054

Abstract: Abstract We report results of numerical simulations of a potential subaerial landslide on the coast of Orcas Island and the resultant tsunami waves in the southern Strait of Georgia near the US/Canada border. A likely trigger is strong ground shaking during large earthquakes on the nearby Holocene active Skipjack Island fault zone. For a worst-case scenario, we assume a 0.17 $${\textrm{km}}^3$$ km 3 rigid subaerial failure on the steep northeast coast of the island, spanning the $$\sim$$ ∼ 5 km between previous landslide deposits on the adjacent seafloor. The landslide motion and resulting tsunami generation are modeled using the three-dimensional (3D) non-hydrostatics physics-based NHWAVE model. The simulated failure moves downslope with a peak velocity of 13.64ṁ/s and travels 732 m before coming to rest after 85 s in 75-m water depth. Tsunami propagation is then continued using the 2D fully nonlinear and dispersive Boussinesq wave model FUNWAVE-TVD in a succession of layered and nested grids. The modeling reveals susceptible locations, particularly as waves will arrive with little or no warning. In the near-source region, modeled waves have peak amplitudes of 15–20 m, current speeds of up to 10 m/s, and runup of up to 30 m. Smaller, but significant, wave amplitudes and runup occur throughout the region surrounding Orcas Island. In the tsunami propagation direction, runup reaches 7.5 m at Neptune Beach near Lummi Bay. Both initial and reflected waves cause significant runup (> 1.5 m) along much of the shoreline between Point Roberts and Lummi Bay.

Keywords: Landslide tsunami simulation; Subaerial landslide; Tsunami coastal hazard modeling; FTVD; NHWAVE (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-023-05854-w

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