Climatic and socioeconomic regionalization of the meteorological drought in Mexico using a predictive algorithm

G. Y. Valenzuela-Morales, M. Hernández-Téllez, C. R. Fonseca-Ortiz, M. A. Gómez-Albores, A. Esquivel-Ocadiz, R. Arévalo-Mejía, A. Mejía-Olivares and C. A. Mastachi-Loza ()
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G. Y. Valenzuela-Morales: Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México
M. Hernández-Téllez: Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México
C. R. Fonseca-Ortiz: Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México
M. A. Gómez-Albores: Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México
A. Esquivel-Ocadiz: Secretaría de Educación Pública del Estado de México
R. Arévalo-Mejía: Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México
A. Mejía-Olivares: Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México
C. A. Mastachi-Loza: Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2023, vol. 117, issue 2, No 9, 1403 pages

Abstract: Abstract Drought is one of the foremost extreme and dangerous hydrological phenomena that exist because of devastating social, economic, and environmental consequences. These consequences are highly dependent on the climate and water management characteristics of the place where it occurs. Monitoring and analyzing drought is challenging because of both its slow onset and that it is an unavoidable natural hazard whose occurrence is aggravated by climate change. This study aimed to regionalize meteorological drought considering climatic and socioeconomic variables for a better characterization of the Mexican municipalities affected by droughts to assist specific local planning and management. Regression and classification trees were used, to be an evidence-sustained tool that allows the generation of well-differentiated management plans according to the characteristics of each municipality in Mexico. As result, nine regions were found. Regionalization made it possible to identify the municipalities in Mexico that had the worst drought from 2003 to March 2020 as well as the climatic and socioeconomic characteristics that make them more vulnerable to this disaster.

Keywords: Extreme events; Drought; Regionalization; CART; Mexico (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-023-05908-z

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