Quantifying the effects of nonlinear trends of meteorological factors on drought dynamics

Wenwen Guo, Shengzhi Huang (), Yong Zhao, Guoyong Leng, Xianggui Zhao, Pei Li, Mingqiu Nie and Qiang Huang
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Wenwen Guo: Xi’an University of Technology
Shengzhi Huang: Xi’an University of Technology
Yong Zhao: China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research
Guoyong Leng: Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Xianggui Zhao: Xi’an University of Technology
Pei Li: Xi’an University of Technology
Mingqiu Nie: Xi’an University of Technology
Qiang Huang: Xi’an University of Technology

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2023, vol. 117, issue 3, No 17, 2505-2526

Abstract: Abstract Exploring the effects of meteorological factors on drought dynamic is of important significance for in-depth understanding drought formation mechanism and developing strategies to adapt to climate change. Nevertheless, existing studies have neglected the influence of nonlinear characteristics of meteorological factors on drought evolution, as well as their complex interactions, inhibiting in-depth understanding drought formation mechanism and accurate forecasting. To this end, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) is adopted in this study to characterize meteorological drought, and the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) is used to explore the nonlinear trend of meteorological factors. Moreover, considering that the interaction between meteorological factors brings some uncertainty in quantifying their individual contributions, a new framework for quantifying drought dynamics taking into account nonlinear trends in meteorological factors and their interactions is proposed based on numerical experiments under eight climate experiments. The Loess Plateau (LP), where drought occurs frequently and its ecological environment is very fragile, is selected as a case study. Results show that: (1) the LP generally shows a drying trend on annual and seasonal scales except for summer especially for its northwest; (2) the interaction between meteorological factors affects the evolution of drought. Eliminating the interactions, the dominant factor on annual SPEI trend is wind speed, both in spring and winter, while sunshine hours and precipitation dominate summer and autumn SPEI trend, respectively; (3) the positive trend contribution of sunshine hours to SPEI is greater than the negative contribution of temperature in summer, and its decline plays an important role in alleviating the drought on the LP in summer. In general, this study sheds a new insight into quantifying the nonlinear effects of meteorological factors to drought dynamics. Relevant findings will help to further understand the mechanism of drought formation under changing environments and provide scientific and technical support for drought early warning and scientific response.

Keywords: Drought; SPEI; Nonlinear trend; Loess Plateau; Climate change (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-023-05954-7

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