Evolution of double vortices induce tropical cyclogenesis of Seroja over Flores, Indonesia

Erma Yulihastin (), Ankiq Taofiqurohman, Ibnu Fathrio, Fadli Nauval, Dita Fatria Andarini, Rahaden Bagas Hatmaja, Akhmad Fahim, Namira Nasywa Perdani, Haries Satyawardhana, M. Furqon Azis Ismail, Dwiyoga Nugroho, Suaydhi, Iis Sofiati, Lely Qodrita Avia and Herlina Ika Ratnawati
Additional contact information
Erma Yulihastin: National Research and Innovation Agency
Ankiq Taofiqurohman: Padjajaran University
Ibnu Fathrio: National Research and Innovation Agency
Fadli Nauval: National Research and Innovation Agency
Dita Fatria Andarini: National Research and Innovation Agency
Rahaden Bagas Hatmaja: National Research and Innovation Agency
Akhmad Fahim: Agency for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics
Namira Nasywa Perdani: Padjajaran University
Haries Satyawardhana: National Research and Innovation Agency
M. Furqon Azis Ismail: National Research and Innovation Agency
Dwiyoga Nugroho: National Research and Innovation Agency
Suaydhi: National Research and Innovation Agency
Iis Sofiati: National Research and Innovation Agency
Lely Qodrita Avia: National Research and Innovation Agency
Herlina Ika Ratnawati: National Research and Innovation Agency

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2023, vol. 117, issue 3, No 23, 2675-2692

Abstract: Abstract Over one hundred years of vigorous progress in tropical cyclone (TC) research, the genesis of the cyclone (hereafter, tropical cyclogenesis) is remarkable as a doubtful subject. Furthermore, predicting tropical cyclogenesis, particularly in the lesser latitude, remains a significant challenge. Therefore, understanding the complex interactions in developing tropical cyclogenesis over the region is vital to improving tropical cyclogenesis forecasting. Hence, the Indonesia Maritime Continent is a tropical cyclone-free region due to decreasing the Coriolis effect. However, Seroja TC hit Flores (8.6° S, 120° E), east Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia, on 4 April 2021, and was recorded as the first TC that occurred over the mainland, which brought a catastrophic disaster in the region. This study investigated the tropical cyclogenesis of Seroja by using observational and numerical studies. The results indicate that a marine heatwave and double vortices were favorable conditions that produced preconditions for developing tropical cyclogenesis over the Maluku Sea. Thus, tropical cyclogenesis is formed by the breakdown of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) associated with synoptic-scale wave train driven under the interaction of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) and equatorial Rossby waves. Moreover, our finding suggested that an extensive background cyclonic vorticity under the cold pool mechanisms is responsible for maintaining tropical cyclogenesis into a persistent Seroja TC.

Keywords: Tropical cyclogenesis; Indonesia Maritime Continent; MJO; Equatorial Rossby; Double vortices (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-023-05961-8

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