Assessing the impact of global warming on windstorms in the northeastern United States using the pseudo-global-warming method

Jisesh Sethunadh (), F. W. Letson, R. J. Barthelmie and S. C. Pryor
Additional contact information
Jisesh Sethunadh: Cornell University
F. W. Letson: Cornell University
R. J. Barthelmie: Cornell University
S. C. Pryor: Cornell University

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2023, vol. 117, issue 3, No 29, 2807-2834

Abstract: Abstract Windstorms resulting from intense synoptic-scale cyclones are an important natural hazard in the current climate of the northeastern United States, but their likely response to global climate non-stationarity is poorly understood. This study investigates the ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting model applied at 3.3 km resolution to simulate historically important cold-season windstorms associated with Alberta Clippers (AC) and Colorado Lows (CL) and then examines how such events may evolve in the future using pseudo-global-warming (PGW) simulations. The simulations encompass approximately 14-day periods that include passage of both a primary-strong extratropical cyclone during which multiple stations exhibited 10-m wind speed observations > 20 ms−1, and a secondary-weak mid-latitude cyclone. The thermodynamics changes projected in the pseudo-global-warming (PGW) experiments lead to a modest decline in maximum wind speeds. The marginal probability of 10-m wind speeds > 14.3 ms−1 drops from 6.6 to 5.3% during the intense AC and from 9 to 6.5% for the intense CL. Similarly, the probability of nonzero precipitation in any grid cell/3-h time interval declines from 2.44% in the control simulation of the intense AC to 1.59% in the PGW simulation, and from 3.39 to 2.67% for the intense CL. Virtually all snow during the CL that occurred during March 2018 is simulated as other hydrometeor types in the PGW experiment, and the spatial extent and location of very heavy precipitation are also greatly modified.

Keywords: WRF; Thermodynamic global warming; Wind speeds; Great Lakes; Extreme events (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-023-05968-1 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:117:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-023-05968-1

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11069

DOI: 10.1007/s11069-023-05968-1

Access Statistics for this article

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards is currently edited by Thomas Glade, Tad S. Murty and Vladimír Schenk

More articles in Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards from Springer, International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().