Assessing long-term rainfall trends and changes in a tropical watershed Brantas, Indonesia: an approach for quantifying the agreement among satellite-based rainfall data, ground rainfall data, and small-scale farmers questionnaires

Bagus Setiabudi Wiwoho, Ike Sari Astuti (), Purwanto Purwanto, Ifan Deffinika, Imam Abdul Gani Alfarizi, Hetty Rahmawati Sucahyo, Randhiki Gusti, Mochammad Tri Herwanto and Gilang Aulia Herlambang
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Bagus Setiabudi Wiwoho: Universitas Negeri Malang
Ike Sari Astuti: Universitas Negeri Malang
Purwanto Purwanto: Universitas Negeri Malang
Ifan Deffinika: Universitas Negeri Malang
Imam Abdul Gani Alfarizi: Universitas Negeri Malang
Hetty Rahmawati Sucahyo: Universitas Negeri Malang
Randhiki Gusti: Institut Pertanian Malang
Mochammad Tri Herwanto: SMAN 1 Kediri
Gilang Aulia Herlambang: Universitas Negeri Malang

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2023, vol. 117, issue 3, No 30, 2835-2862

Abstract: Abstract The agreement between meteorological data and societal perception is essential in supporting a robust policy making and its implementation. In humid tropic watersheds like Brantas, such consensus is important for water resources management and policies. This study exemplifies an effort to understand the long-term rainfall characteristics within the watershed and to build a common link among the differing data sources: CHIRPS rainfall satellite data, rain gauge data, and farmers perceptions. Six rainfall characteristics were derived using statistical measures from the scientific data and then were translated to a series of structured questionnaires given to small-scale farmers. A consensus matrix was built to examine the level of agreement among three data sources, supporting the spatial pattern of the meteorological data and farmers perception. Two rainfall attributes were classified with high agreement, four with moderate and one with low agreement. The agreements and discrepancies of rainfall characteristics were found in the study area. The discrepancies originated from the accuracy in translating scientific measurements to practical meanings for farmers, complexity of the farming system, the nature of phenomena in questions, and farmers’ ability to record long-term climatic events. This study shows an implication that a combined approach to link scientific data and societal data is needed to support powerful climate policy making.

Keywords: Rainfall pattern; Rainfall changes; Farmer’s perception; Brantas; Satellite data; Watershed (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-023-05969-0

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