Quantitative evaluation of flood damage methodologies under a portfolio of adaptation scenarios

Julien Boulange (), Yukiko Hirabayashi, Masahiro Tanoue and Toshinori Yamada
Additional contact information
Julien Boulange: Shibaura Institute of Technology
Yukiko Hirabayashi: Shibaura Institute of Technology
Masahiro Tanoue: Meteorological Agency
Toshinori Yamada: Shibaura Institute of Technology

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2023, vol. 118, issue 3, No 4, 1855-1879

Abstract: Abstract Flood risk is anticipated to increase, driven by climate change and socioeconomic development. Flood impact assessments rely heavily on models, and understanding the effects of uncertainties encompassed in the modelling chain is critical to adequately interpret flood risk and the development of effective flood adaptation measures. Previous research has focused on the effects of processes embedded in models, and flood frequency analysis of flood risk. However, no study has yet evaluated the cascading effects of flood damage assessment methodologies on uncertainty in the estimation of expected annual damage (EAD), optimal flood protection, and residual flood damage (RFD). Here, using an updated global river and inundation model forced by the latest climate data and employing a standard flood methodology, we found that global EAD will increase by $16.2 (USD throughout) and $44.5 billion yr−1 during 2020–2100 under low- and high-emissions scenarios, respectively. During the same period, despite the adoption of optimal levels of flood protections, global total RFD remained high under both low- and high-emissions scenarios, at $25.8 and $36.2 billion yr−1, respectively. Our results demonstrate that, under current levels of flood protection, EAD will approximately double with a switch in methodology. Aggregating data at the regional scale revealed conflicting trends between methodologies for developing and high-income countries, driven by existing levels of flood protection as well as the intensity, evolution, and distribution of gross domestic product at the administrative unit scale. Flood damage methodology is the dominant source of uncertainty, followed by unit construction cost and discount rate.

Keywords: Flood; Expected annual damage; Residual damage; Adaptation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-023-06017-7 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:118:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-023-06017-7

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11069

DOI: 10.1007/s11069-023-06017-7

Access Statistics for this article

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards is currently edited by Thomas Glade, Tad S. Murty and Vladimír Schenk

More articles in Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards from Springer, International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().