Pedestrian evacuation time calculation against tsunami hazard for southern coasts of Bodrum peninsula

Busra Celikbas (), Duygu Tufekci-Enginar, Gozde Guney Dogan, Cagil Kolat, Marzia Santini, Alessandro Annunziato, Ocal Necmioglu, Ahmet Cevdet Yalciner and Mehmet Lutfi Suzen
Additional contact information
Busra Celikbas: METU
Duygu Tufekci-Enginar: METU
Gozde Guney Dogan: METU
Cagil Kolat: METU
Marzia Santini: European Commission Joint Research Center
Alessandro Annunziato: European Commission Joint Research Center
Ocal Necmioglu: European Commission Joint Research Center
Ahmet Cevdet Yalciner: METU
Mehmet Lutfi Suzen: METU

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2023, vol. 119, issue 1, No 10, 243-260

Abstract: Abstract Historical records with recent events reveal that tsunamis are threatening the western coast of Turkey due to the intensely active seismicity of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. The most recent tsunami events in the region (30 October 2020 Izmir-Samos and 20 July 2017 Bodrum-Kos) restated that the cities located near the Eastern Mediterranean and connected seas should also consider tsunami events in their disaster mitigation plans. Bodrum is one of the most critical coastal districts vulnerable to marine hazards, with popular hotels, numerous coastal facilities, long and famous beaches, cultural, historical and touristic places. Tsunami evacuation planning is required for Bodrum district to mitigate the damage caused by destructive tsunami waves inundating on land. This study calculates the geospatial distribution of pedestrian evacuation time, based on selected credible worst-case scenarios. A widely used anisotropic least-cost distance model is applied via the Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst Tool to calculate the required time for a pedestrian to evacuate the region under tsunami threat based on the selected scenarios. The model includes landscape properties that affect the walking pace of pedestrians during an evacuation, such as elevation, slope, land cover, and land use types (beach, road, bushes, water bodies, and barriers). The resultant pedestrian evacuation time maps show that the maximum time needed for a pedestrian is 8, 6, 5, 4, and 3 min for highly populated coastal settlements of Bodrum, which are Central Bodrum, Yahsi, Akyarlar-Karaincir-Aspat Bays, Bitez, and Gumbet Bays, respectively.

Keywords: Tsunami evacuation; Least-cost distance (LCD) model; Pedestrian evacuation; Walk time maps; Pedestrian evacuation analysis tool (PEAT) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-023-06034-6 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:119:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-023-06034-6

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11069

DOI: 10.1007/s11069-023-06034-6

Access Statistics for this article

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards is currently edited by Thomas Glade, Tad S. Murty and Vladimír Schenk

More articles in Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards from Springer, International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().