Analyzing drought trends over Sindh Province, Pakistan

Mansoor Ahmed (), Ghulam Hussain Dars (), Suhail Ahmed () and Nir Y. Krakauer ()
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Mansoor Ahmed: University of Sindh
Ghulam Hussain Dars: Mehran University of Engineering and Technology
Suhail Ahmed: Mehran University of Engineering and Technology
Nir Y. Krakauer: City College of New York

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2023, vol. 119, issue 1, No 25, 643-661

Abstract: Abstract This study examines the drought patterns in Pakistan's Sindh Province (low-riparian of the Indus Basin) from 1902 to 2015 using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) on 3-month and 12-month timescales. The spatial "K"luster analysis using tree edge removal method was used to divide the study area into four zones with similar climatic characteristics. Then, the run theory was applied to characterize droughts (durations, severity, intensity, and peaks) in each zone. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall trend test was also applied to analyze statistically significant trends by zone and drought characteristic. It was found that all four zones experienced a decrease in SPEI throughout the analyzed period. The effects of climate change are more evident when we analyzed drought characteristics in two time slices, i.e., pre and post-1960. The results showed that in the post-1960 time slice, droughts increased in duration, severity, intensity, and peaks over the entire study area under both 3 and 12-month SPEI. The findings of this study can assist policymakers and water managers in devising policies for managing limited water resources under changing patterns of droughts in Sindh Province.

Keywords: Drought hazard; Drought characterization; SKATER; SPEI; Sindh (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-023-06082-y

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