Compound heatwave and drought hotspots and their trends in Southeast Australia

Orpita U. Laz, Ataur Rahman () and Taha B. M. J. Ouarda
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Orpita U. Laz: Western Sydney University
Ataur Rahman: Western Sydney University
Taha B. M. J. Ouarda: Canada Research Chair in Statistical Hydro-Climatology, Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique INRS-ETE

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2023, vol. 119, issue 1, No 14, 357-386

Abstract: Abstract Compound extreme natural events cause a significantly larger impact than individual extreme events. Therefore, the urgency of exploring the climatology of compound events is growing. This paper is aimed to identify the current hotspots of compound heatwaves and droughts (CHD) and trends in their occurrence in southeast Australia. In this context, 61 weather stations were selected from the study area, and analyses were carried out over the extended summer season of the time period 1971–2021. The hotspots of CHDs in southeast Australia were identified considering both the total count of CHD days and 90th percentile of CHDs during the study period. The study period was divided into two periods 1971–2000 and 2001–2021, to assess the change in hotspots spatially and temporally. Four different attributes of CHDs based on the number, duration, severity and amplitude of CHDs were also calculated, and Mann–Kendall (MK) test followed by Sen’s slope was adopted to detect the trends in all these four attributes of CHDs. Trends in CHD indices were also calculated for the two periods of 1971–2000 and 2001–2021. For calculating the CHD, excess heat factor (EHF) was used to identify the heatwaves. In the case of drought identification, SPEI and SPI drought indices were adopted with aggregation of 3 and 126 antecedent months, and three different threshold values were selected to consider three levels of dry conditions, e.g. 0, − 0.5 and − 1.0. It has been found that more CHDs occurred on the eastern side of NSW and Queensland states. Furthermore, the total count of CHD days increased notably during the last two decades. The trends in CHD indices were found to be significant in the recent period (2001–2021), and there was no trend in the earlier period (1971–2000). The findings of this study will help to plan heat and drought-related emergency management in the study area.

Keywords: Compound events; Drought; Heatwave; Southeast Australia; Trends (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-023-06115-6

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