An application of dynamic programming to local adaptation decision-making

Veruska Muccione (), Thomas Lontzek, Christian Huggel, Philipp Ott and Nadine Salzmann
Additional contact information
Veruska Muccione: University of Zurich
Thomas Lontzek: RWTH Aachen University
Christian Huggel: University of Zurich
Philipp Ott: University of Zurich
Nadine Salzmann: WSL: Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2023, vol. 119, issue 1, No 20, 523-544

Abstract: Abstract Adaptation decision-making in mountain regions necessitates dealing with uncertainties which are driven by the complex topography and the potential interconnections of stochastic events. Such events can lead to amplifying consequences for the exposed communities located at different elevations. In this study, we present a stylized application of stochastic dynamic programming for local adaptation decision-making for a small alpine community exposed to debris flows and floods. We assume that local decision-makers and planners aim at maximizing specific objectives by choosing from a feasible set of adaptation measures and under given constraints on these actions. Our results show that stochastic dynamic programming is a promising tool to address the underlying problem faced by local planners when evaluating the feasibility and effectiveness of adaptation measures. Furthermore, stochastic dynamic programming has some advantages compared to deterministic approaches which assume full knowledge of the system of interest in a world dominated by randomness. We provide an estimation of a best option and an appropriate metric to benchmark adaptation effectiveness for long time horizons. We show how multiple constraints, risk preferences, time horizons and decision periods all influence the decision-making and the overall success of adaptation responses over time.

Keywords: Climate risks; Climate change adaptation; Decision making; Dynamic programming; Debris flows; Floods (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-023-06135-2 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:119:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-023-06135-2

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11069

DOI: 10.1007/s11069-023-06135-2

Access Statistics for this article

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards is currently edited by Thomas Glade, Tad S. Murty and Vladimír Schenk

More articles in Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards from Springer, International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().