Approaching the challenge of multi-phase, multi-hazard volcanic impact assessment through the lens of systemic risk: application to Taranaki Mounga

Alana M. Weir (), Thomas M. Wilson, Mark S. Bebbington, Sarah Beaven, Teresa Gordon, Craig Campbell-Smart, Stuart Mead, James H. Williams and Roger Fairclough
Additional contact information
Alana M. Weir: University of Canterbury Te Whare Wānanga o Waitaha
Thomas M. Wilson: University of Canterbury Te Whare Wānanga o Waitaha
Mark S. Bebbington: Massey University
Sarah Beaven: University of Canterbury Te Whare Wānanga o Waitaha
Teresa Gordon: Ministry for Primary Industries Manatū Ahu Matua
Craig Campbell-Smart: Taranaki Civil Defence and Emergency Management
Stuart Mead: Massey University
James H. Williams: University of Canterbury Te Whare Wānanga o Waitaha
Roger Fairclough: Neo Leaf Global Ltd

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2024, vol. 120, issue 10, No 9, 9327-9360

Abstract: Abstract Effective volcanic impact and risk assessment underpins effective volcanic disaster risk management. Yet contemporary volcanic risk assessments face a number of challenges, including delineating hazard and impact sequences, and identifying and quantifying systemic risks. A more holistic approach to impact assessment is required, which incorporates the complex, multi-hazard nature of volcanic eruptions and the dynamic nature of vulnerability before, during and after a volcanic event. Addressing this need requires a multidisciplinary, integrated approach, involving scientists and stakeholders to co-develop decision-support tools that are scientifically credible and operationally relevant to provide a foundation for robust, evidence-based risk reduction decisions. This study presents a dynamic, longitudinal impact assessment framework for multi-phase, multi-hazard volcanic events and applies the framework to interdependent critical infrastructure networks in the Taranaki region of Aotearoa New Zealand, where Taranaki Mounga volcano has a high likelihood of producing a multi-phase explosive eruption within the next 50 years. In the framework, multi-phase scenarios temporally alternate multi-hazard footprints with risk reduction opportunities. Thus, direct and cascading impacts and any risk management actions carry through to the next phase of activity. The framework forms a testbed for more targeted mitigation and response planning and allows the investigation of optimal intervention timing for mitigation strategies during an evolving eruption. Using ‘risk management’ scenarios, we find the timing of mitigation intervention to be crucial in reducing disaster losses associated with volcanic activity. This is particularly apparent in indirect, systemic losses that cascade from direct damage to infrastructure assets. This novel, dynamic impact assessment approach addresses the increasing end-user need for impact-based decision-support tools that inform robust response and resilience planning.

Keywords: Volcanic risk assessment; Disaster impact assessment; Co-creation; Dynamic risk; Disaster risk reduction; Aotearoa New Zealand (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-023-06386-z Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:120:y:2024:i:10:d:10.1007_s11069-023-06386-z

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11069

DOI: 10.1007/s11069-023-06386-z

Access Statistics for this article

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards is currently edited by Thomas Glade, Tad S. Murty and Vladimír Schenk

More articles in Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards from Springer, International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().