Landslide susceptibility assessment using different rainfall event-based landslide inventories: advantages and limitations

Sérgio C. Oliveira (), José L. Zêzere (), Ricardo A. C. Garcia (), Susana Pereira (), Teresa Vaz () and Raquel Melo ()
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Sérgio C. Oliveira: Universidade de Lisboa
José L. Zêzere: Universidade de Lisboa
Ricardo A. C. Garcia: Universidade de Lisboa
Susana Pereira: Universidade de Lisboa
Teresa Vaz: Universidade de Lisboa
Raquel Melo: Universidade de Lisboa

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2024, vol. 120, issue 10, No 10, 9399 pages

Abstract: Abstract The present work aims to evaluate potential sources of uncertainty associated with rainfall-triggered event-based landslide inventories within the framework of landslide susceptibility assessment. Therefore, this study addresses the following questions: (i) How representative is an event-based landslide inventory map of the total landslide activity and distribution in a study area?; (ii) How reliable is an event-based landslide susceptibility map?; (iii) How appropriate is an event-based landslide inventory map for independently validating a landslide susceptibility map? To address these questions, two independent and contrasting rainfall event-based landslide inventories were used, together with a historical landslide inventory, to assess landslide susceptibility for different types of landslides in a study area located north of Lisbon, Portugal. The results revealed the following findings: (i) contrasting rainfall critical conditions for failure can trigger similar landslide types, although they may vary in size and be spatially constrained by different predisposing conditions, particularly lithology and soil type; (ii) landslide susceptibility models using event-based landslide inventories are not reliable in the study area, regardless of the landslide inventory map used for training and validation; and (iii) complementary sources of uncertainty results from using incomplete historical landslide inventories to assess landslide susceptibility and non-totally independent landslide inventories for modeling validation. The present study enhances the understanding of regional landslide susceptibility patterns based on contrasting rainfall-trigger conditions, providing valuable information to minimize exposure; to design regional landslide early warning systems for specific rainfall-trigger landslide events; and to improve the response and preparedness of civil protection services.

Keywords: Landslides; Event-based landslide inventories; Short intense and long-lasting rainfall events; Landslide susceptibility assessment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06691-1

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