Estimating the functional impacts associated with rainfall-induced hazards for Chinese railway system: fragility, risk and its uncertainty

Weihua Zhu, Kai Liu (), Shoudong Wang, Ming Wang and Shengli Liu
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Weihua Zhu: Ministry of Transport
Kai Liu: Beijing Normal University
Shoudong Wang: Ministry of Transport
Ming Wang: Beijing Normal University
Shengli Liu: Ministry of Transport

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2024, vol. 120, issue 11, No 9, 9585-9607

Abstract: Abstract Rainfall-induced landslides, debris flows, and floods pose great risks to the operating service of the Chinese railway system. Evaluating their functional impact is crucial for guiding risk reduction action. Here, we generate an initial set of regional service fragility models and estimate the service risk of the Chinese railway system associated with rainfall-induced hazards. The results reveal noticeable regional differences in service fragility across China. Railways in northern China and western China are highly vulnerable to rainfall-induced hazards, while railways in southern and eastern China are robust. Nationally, 279,000 trains are expected to be affected annually, accounting for 6.45% of the total trains; ~80% of these incidences occur in May-September. In addition, the national railway lines prone to hazards are geographically widespread, especially in Southwest China and Southern China. Railway links such as Wuhan-Guangzhou, Guizhou-Guangzhou and the lines along the southeast coast exhibit higher risk due to their higher failure probabilities and higher train trip flow. An uncertainty and sensitivity analysis suggests that fragility models produce high uncertainty for service risk, which justifies the significance of generating detailed regional fragility models. The fragility models and risk maps produced in this paper can be used as an essential step in enhancing the resilience of the railway transport system and provide a data basis and theoretical basis for safe railway operations.

Keywords: Service fragility model; Risk estimate; Rainfall-induced hazards; Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06578-1

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