Risk analysis of rainstorm-urban lifeline system disaster chain based on the PageRank-risk matrix and complex network

Hai-xiang Guo, Xin-yu He (), Xin-biao Lv and Yang Wu
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Hai-xiang Guo: China University of Geosciences
Xin-yu He: China University of Geosciences
Xin-biao Lv: China University of Geosciences
Yang Wu: China University of Geosciences

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2024, vol. 120, issue 12, No 6, 10583-10606

Abstract: Abstract Rainstorm disasters cause serious threats to people’s lives and property. Enhancing emergency response and decision-making capabilities for rainstorm disasters is necessary. In this paper, 87 rainstorm disasters worldwide were first analysed, and secondary events across 15 urban lifeline systems were summarized. Based on the obtained findings and the characteristics of rainstorm disaster evolution and complex network theory, a model of rainstorm disaster chains in urban lifeline systems was constructed, and both partial and overall analyses of this model were performed. With the use of the PageRank risk matrix method, quantitative node risk levels were calculated for different parts of the model, and complex network theory was applied to assess the overall chain risk. The results showed that the highest risk disaster chain was flood → houses submerged or collapsed → road damaged → traffic congestion or paralysis. The most important node was traffic congestion or paralysis, underlining the acute need for emergency response measures in urban traffic systems during rainstorm disasters. Overall, this research provides a crucial direction for preventing rainstorm disasters in urban lifeline systems.

Keywords: Rainstorm disaster; Complex networks; Risk matrix; PageRank algorithm; Disaster chain (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06613-1

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