Planning for service space of medium- and long-term shelters based on multi-agent evacuation simulation

Xiaoran Liu, Luemiao Zhang (), Jiliang Zhen and Wei Wang
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Xiaoran Liu: Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture
Luemiao Zhang: Beijing University Of Technology
Jiliang Zhen: Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture
Wei Wang: Beijing University Of Technology

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2024, vol. 120, issue 14, No 10, 12769-12796

Abstract: Abstract The evacuation process after the earthquake is affected by different shelters, which can easily lead to disorderly evacuation and prolong the overall evacuation time. Therefore, the scientific planning and design of the service space of shelters in urban disaster prevention areas is necessary to ensure efficient and rational evacuation. In this paper, Set Pair Analysis-Variable Fuzzy Recognition Model (SPA-VFRM) was used to analyze the risk of evacuation disorder in urban disaster prevention areas. Besides, the method for dividing the service scope of medium- and long-term shelters (MLS) based on multi-agent simulation was proposed to improve the evacuation efficiency, which considered the characteristics of evacuation space and the people composition in different types of areas. Taking Xuchang City in China as an example, the multi-agent dynamic simulation experiment was carried out based on the evacuation demand after the earthquake. The results showed that the disorderly evacuation harmed the overall evacuation time and people refuge distribution in the area. When the service radius of MLS in industrial, residential, and comprehensive areas were 2.0 km, 1.0 km, and 1.5 km, respectively, the people evacuation in the area could be completed within 1 h, which met the requirements of the long-distance evacuation (LDE) time in the specification. The research results can provide a basis for the quantitative optimization of the service space for MLS in different types of urban areas, and enrich and deepen the design theory of urban disaster prevention shelters.

Keywords: Service space; Medium- and long-term shelters; Disorder; SPA-VFRM; Multi-agent; Simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06734-7

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