Fire activity and fire weather in a Lower Mekong subregion: association, regional calibration, weather–adjusted trends, and policy implications

Wint Wah Phoo, Kasemsan Manomaiphiboon (), Narin Jaroonrattanapak, Jittisak Yodcum, Kanoksri Sarinnapakorn, Sebastien Bonnet, Nishit Aman, Agapol Junpen, Bikash Devkota, Yangjun Wang and Chaiwat Wilasang
Additional contact information
Wint Wah Phoo: King Mongkut’s University of Technology Thonburi
Kasemsan Manomaiphiboon: King Mongkut’s University of Technology Thonburi
Narin Jaroonrattanapak: Department of National Parks, Wildlife, and Plant Conservation
Jittisak Yodcum: Royal Forest Department
Kanoksri Sarinnapakorn: Hydro–Informatics Institute (Public Organization)
Sebastien Bonnet: King Mongkut’s University of Technology Thonburi
Nishit Aman: King Mongkut’s University of Technology Thonburi
Agapol Junpen: King Mongkut’s University of Technology Thonburi
Bikash Devkota: King Mongkut’s University of Technology Thonburi
Yangjun Wang: Shanghai University
Chaiwat Wilasang: King Mongkut’s University of Technology Thonburi

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2024, vol. 120, issue 14, No 28, 13259-13288

Abstract: Abstract Fire activity and fire weather in a fire–prone Lower Mekong subregion (mainly encompassing northern Thailand, eastern Myanmar, and northern Laos) were investigated over a long–term 20–year period (2003–2022) using multiple datasets (here, satellite–detected fires, gridded ERA5–based fire weather, gridded land cover, terrain elevation, slope, potential available biomass, and population density). Both fires and fire weather exhibit strong seasonality. In the dry season, fires are intensified, and fire weather promotes them. Dry–season fires contribute dominantly to total fires. Fire grouping was performed to cluster dry–season fires into groups. The log–logistic and exponential models were used to fit daily fine fuel moisture code and fire weather index of the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System, respectively, together with daily fire activity. The calibrated thresholds of the two indices were determined using a slope–based method, partitioning each index into different danger levels. The new calibrated thresholds suggest fires in Lower Southeast Asia being more sensitive to fire weather than in Upper Southeast Asia. A generalized linear model based procedure was used to remove the effects of fire weather on trend (i.e., weather adjustment). The original trends in fire activity are significantly decreasing. The weather–adjusted trends in fire activity also show a decline, confirming effective regional fire management. Differences in the weather–adjusted trends between the first and second half periods suggest that Thailand has maintained effective fire management in the recent years. But Myanmar and Laos may need to strengthen their fire management especially in the forest and agricultural areas, respectively.

Keywords: Fire occurrence; Meteorological adjustment; ENSO; Land cover; Fuel (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-024-06743-6 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:120:y:2024:i:14:d:10.1007_s11069-024-06743-6

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11069

DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06743-6

Access Statistics for this article

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards is currently edited by Thomas Glade, Tad S. Murty and Vladimír Schenk

More articles in Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards from Springer, International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().