Landslide susceptibility, ensemble machine learning, and accuracy methods in the southern Sinai Peninsula, Egypt: Assessment and Mapping

Ahmed M. Youssef, Bosy A. El‑Haddad, Hariklia D. Skilodimou, George D. Bathrellos, Foroogh Golkar and Hamid Reza Pourghasemi ()
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Ahmed M. Youssef: Sohag University
Bosy A. El‑Haddad: Sohag University
Hariklia D. Skilodimou: University of Patras
George D. Bathrellos: University of Patras
Foroogh Golkar: Shiraz University
Hamid Reza Pourghasemi: Shiraz University

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2024, vol. 120, issue 15, No 21, 14227-14258

Abstract: Abstract Each year, thousands of tourists visit Egypt’s Wadi Feiran region, which is one of the most popular tourist sites in the Sinai Peninsula. The region’s topography is distinctive and diverse, making it particularly susceptible to “natural disasters” (such as floods and landslides). The current study deals with landslide hazards as a critical hazard type, where, after rainfall, hundreds of landslides occur annually, and landslide disaster assessments are required to reduce mountain hazards. The current research mapped “landslide susceptibility” in the Wadi Feiran basin using three different modeling strategies: “Logistic Regression” -LR, “Artificial Neural Network”-ANN, and an “ensemble” ensemble’ of LR and ANN. A “landslides” map was first created as a preliminary stage, using 800 landslide locations acquired from multiple data sources, including historical records, field surveys, and high-resolution satellite imagery. Fourteen landslide causative parameters (LCPs) were extracted to build the model. these models’ accuracy was evaluated using “receiver operating characteristics and area under the curve (ROC - AUC),” “root mean square error”-RMSE, and kappa index (K). According to the findings, the AUC for LR, ANN, and ensemble of LR &ANN were 82%, 89%, and 91%, respectively. The results showed that The ensemble model outperformed ANN and LR by 2.3% and 10.9%, respectively, whereas ANN model outperformed LR by 8.5%. Other statistical indices also revealed that the RMSE and kappa index values obtained by LR were the highest and lowest, respectively, whereas the RMSE and kappa index values generated by the LR&ANN ensemble were the lowest and highest, respectively. These results indicate that landslides are affected by a wide variety of natural and anthropogenic factors.

Keywords: Landslide susceptibility assessment; Ensemble LR-ANN; GIS; Egypt (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06769-w

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