A framework to assess and report social, environmental, and economic post-disaster damages based on Z-numbers and the Delphi method

Mahdi Anbari Moghadam () and Morteza Bagherpour ()
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Mahdi Anbari Moghadam: Iran University of Science and Technology, University Ave. Narmak
Morteza Bagherpour: Antalya Bilim University

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2024, vol. 120, issue 15, No 30, 14459-14494

Abstract: Abstract Natural disasters inflict significant damage on social, environmental, and economic fronts, complicating recovery efforts. Accurately assessing and reporting this damage is challenging due to the complex, multifaceted nature of post-disaster impacts and the inherent uncertainty and unreliability of initial data, often represented through linguistic terms. This paper presents a comprehensive approach to evaluating the damages caused by natural disasters on sustainability pillars by utilizing Z-numbers and the Delphi method. Through expert opinion and literature review, key attributes within each domain are identified. The Delphi method is then utilized to assign weights to these domains and attributes, ensuring an unbiased procedure. The Z-numbers-based approach helps mitigate the uncertainty and unreliability inherent in expert evaluations. The study introduces and computes an Overall Z Post-disaster Damage Index, and then identifies and ranks critical factors for immediate attention by disaster managers, thereby optimizing resource allocation and decision-making. The comparison of different approaches highlights the superiority of the adopted Delphi-based Trapezoidal Z-number method, resulting in a more comprehensive and nuanced damage assessment. The integration of Z-numbers with trapezoidal membership functions effectively captures the complexity and uncertainty inherent in post-disaster situations. This research empowers disaster managers with a practical tool for post-disaster assessment, aiding decision-making and facilitating recovery and reconstruction efforts.

Keywords: Sustainability; Linguistic variables; Post-disaster; Z-numbers; Fuzzy logic; Delphi method (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06802-y

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