Spatial analysis and hazard assessment of large-scale ancient landslides around the reservoir area of Wudongde hydropower station, China

Xiaoyi Shao, Chong Xu (), Lei Li, Zhiqiang Yang, Xianglong Yao, Bo Shao, Cheng Liang, Zhiwen Xue and Xiwei Xu
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Xiaoyi Shao: National Institute of Natural Hazards, Ministry of Emergency Management of China
Chong Xu: National Institute of Natural Hazards, Ministry of Emergency Management of China
Lei Li: National Institute of Natural Hazards, Ministry of Emergency Management of China
Zhiqiang Yang: National Institute of Natural Hazards, Ministry of Emergency Management of China
Xianglong Yao: China Three Gorges Corporation Science and Technology Research Institute
Bo Shao: China Three Gorges Corporation Science and Technology Research Institute
Cheng Liang: China Three Gorges Corporation Science and Technology Research Institute
Zhiwen Xue: National Institute of Natural Hazards, Ministry of Emergency Management of China
Xiwei Xu: National Institute of Natural Hazards, Ministry of Emergency Management of China

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2024, vol. 120, issue 1, No 5, 87-105

Abstract: Abstract The complex geological environment and strong tectonic movement have led to the development of a large number of ancient landslides along the Jinsha River. These landslides exhibit characteristics of large-scale, complex formation mechanisms, multiple sliding periods, and high potential hazards. In this study, we aim to construct an ancient landslide inventory and conduct potential landslide hazard assessment of the Wudongde hydropower station section and its surrounding areas, which is located in the downstream area of Jinsha River. We used the visual interpretation method to recognize large ancient landslides based on high-resolution remote sensing images on the Google Earth platform and analyzed the correlations between the landslide abundance and different influencing factors. Our results show that there were 3126 ancient landslides in the study area, covering a total area of 502.64 km2. The statistical analysis indicated that the landslide occurrence is closely related to the slope gradient and topographic relief, and the landslide abundance index increases with the increase in above two influencing factors. In addition, the ancient landslides gradually decreases with the increase in the elevation, indicating that ancient landslides are more likely to occur in lower elevation areas, i.e., lower portion of the hillslopes. In addition, combining with machine learning method (logistic regression), the potential landslide hazard assessment of the study area was calculated by the hypothetical earthquake scenario of 10% exceedance probability in 50 years. The predicted result shows that the extremely high-hazard area of landslides appeared around the hydropower station, and the high-hazard area was mainly distributed within a 5-km range along both banks of the Jinsha River. This study provides basic data and important reference for the distribution characteristics and potential hazard assessment of ancient landslides in the reservoir area of Wudongde hydropower station.

Keywords: Visual interpretation; Jinsha River; Ancient landslide; Wudongde hydropower station; Influencing factors; Distribution characteristics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-023-06201-9

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