Decision-making study on risk evaluation of earth and rock dams based on ANP unascertained measurement theory

Feng Li, Pengchao Zhang, Qian Li (), Zhuangyu Shen and Xuewan Du
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Feng Li: North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power
Pengchao Zhang: North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power
Qian Li: North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power
Zhuangyu Shen: Xinxiang Municipal Water Resources Bureau
Xuewan Du: North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2024, vol. 120, issue 2, No 28, 1715-1753

Abstract: Abstract Earth and rock dams are susceptible to various uncertainties during their operational and managerial phases, necessitating timely assessment of their structural integrity to ensure proper safeguarding. In pursuit of an expedient, accurate, and quantitative method for evaluating the health condition of earth and rock dams, this paper introduces a novel approach based on the Analytic Network Process (ANP) unascertained measure theory, along with delineating specific evaluation procedures. Initially, an intricate risk assessment framework for earth and rock dams is constructed, comprising six distinct facets: project quality, operational management, flood damage, instability and damage, penetration Sabotage and other risk factors. Subsequently, the evaluation indices' risk values are ascertained through the application of the unconfirmed measure model, which amalgamates diverse information sources, including numerical computations, inspections, and testing. Further refinement is achieved by employing the ANP for index weighting. Ultimately, the validity of this method for assessing the risk associated with earth and rock dam projects is demonstrated through a practical case study. This empirical validation serves as a significant reference point for enhancing risk control and management strategies in the context of earth and rock dam projects.

Keywords: Risk analysis; Unascertained measurement theory; Network analysis; Confidence; Earth and rock dams (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-023-06236-y

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