The spatial analysis of urbanization dynamic impacts in a 50-year flood frequency in Java, Indonesia

Anang Wahyu Sejati (), Imam Buchori (), Nattaya Mlatti Lakshita (), I. G. Andika Wiratmaja () and Desyta Ulfiana ()
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Anang Wahyu Sejati: Universitas Diponegoro
Imam Buchori: Universitas Diponegoro
Nattaya Mlatti Lakshita: Universitas Diponegoro
I. G. Andika Wiratmaja: Universitas Diponegoro
Desyta Ulfiana: Universitas Diponegoro

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2024, vol. 120, issue 3, No 21, 2639-2659

Abstract: Abstract This paper re-examines the influence of urban development on the number of flood events in Java from 1970 to 2020. This paper aims to prove development policies in Indonesia in the last 50 years and to analyze the correlation between flood events, population growth, and urbanization on a broader regional scale. The Moran-I spatial autocorrelation analysis method is applied to measure its spatial autocorrelation between urbanization and flood events. The dynamic urbanization illustrated by spatial–temporal analysis from the 1970 to the 2020s using Landsat data; in this case, urbanization is measured using the parameters of population concentration and built-up area growth in urban areas of Java. In more detail, the results of hot-spot clusters show development from “lower-low” dispersion in the 70 s to areas with a majority of “higher-high” clustered in 2000–2020. It proves that the development burden in Java is in high category impact, so solutions for population distribution, land development, and spatial planning are needed to ensure environmental sustainability in Java.

Keywords: Spatial autocorrelation; Flood frequency; Urbanization; Java North coastal area; Moran index (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-023-06298-y

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