Assessment of compound occurrence of storm surge and river flood in Ise and Mikawa Bays, Japan using a framework of atmosphere–ocean–river coupling

Masaya Toyoda (), Nobuhito Mori, Sooyoul Kim, Yoko Shibutani and Jun Yoshino
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Masaya Toyoda: Toyohashi University of Technology
Nobuhito Mori: Kyoto University
Sooyoul Kim: Kumamoto University
Yoko Shibutani: Toyo Construction Co Ltd.
Jun Yoshino: Gifu University

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2024, vol. 120, issue 4, No 32, 3917 pages

Abstract: Abstract This study evaluated the compound flood risk of 11 different-sized rivers in the estuaries of the Ise and Mikawa Bays, Japan using an integrated framework of atmosphere–ocean–river developed in this study (one-way coupling). First, the framework was developed by incorporating the river channel into a coupled model of surge-wave-tide to include the interaction of the storm surge runup and river flow. In addition, the framework was validated by the Typhoon Trami (2018)-induced meteorological field, discharge, and storm surge with high accuracy. Second, the time difference between the storm surge and discharge at the estuary (ΔT) was investigated, assuming six typhoons with different tracks and similar distributions of intensity and precipitation using Typhoon Hagibis (2019) as a case study. The ΔT was highly positively correlated with the length of the river channel (correlation coefficient: 0.90). Moreover, the smaller rivers were more prone than large rivers to simultaneous storm surges and high river flow. The average ΔT for the smaller rivers was 180.4 min (normalized S.D. = 0.31) with a minimum of 15 min in the most severe case, while the average ΔT for the large-scale rivers was 614.1 min (normalized S.D. = 0.39). We clarified that the storm surge and high river flow occurred simultaneously (within 15 min) in the most severe river case (Yagyu River). These results infer that small rivers have a more significant impact on the co-occurrence of storm surge and high-river flow than large-scale rivers.

Keywords: Compound flooding; Storm surge; Discharge; Small and medium-sized rivers (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-023-06362-7

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