Spatial distribution of wildfire threat in the far north: exposure assessment in boreal communities

Jennifer I. Schmidt (), Robert H. Ziel, Monika P. Calef and Anna Varvak
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Jennifer I. Schmidt: University of Alaska Anchorage
Robert H. Ziel: International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks
Monika P. Calef: Soka University of America Aliso Viejo
Anna Varvak: Soka University of America Aliso Viejo

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2024, vol. 120, issue 5, No 37, 4924 pages

Abstract: Abstract Increased wildfire activity has raised concerns among communities about how to assess and prepare for this threat. There is a need for wildfire hazard assessment approaches that capture local variability to inform decisions, produce results understood by the public, and are updatable in a timely manner. We modified an existing approach to assess decadal wildfire hazards based primarily on ember dispersal and wildfire proximity, referencing landscape changes from 1984 through 2014. Our modifications created a categorical flammability hazard scheme, rather than dichotomous, and integrated wildfire exposure results across spatial scales. We used remote sensed land cover from four historical decadal points to create flammability hazard and wildfire exposure maps for three arctic communities (Anchorage and Fairbanks, Alaska and Whitehorse, Yukon). Within the Fairbanks study area, we compared 2014 flammability hazard, wildfire exposure, and FlamMap burn probabilities among burned (2014–2023) and unburned areas. Unlike burn probabilities, there were significantly higher in exposure values among burned and unburned locations (Wilcoxon; p

Keywords: Alaska; Yukon; Urban; Hazard; Mitigation; Fire (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-023-06365-4

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