Temporal characteristics of cold waves hazard frequency in northwest of Iran and Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation impacts

Yousef Ghavidel () and Solmaz Motalebizad
Additional contact information
Yousef Ghavidel: Tarbiat Modares University
Solmaz Motalebizad: Tarbiat Modares University

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2024, vol. 120, issue 5, No 39, 4957 pages

Abstract: Abstract In this study, cold waves (CW) were set and classified in different severity levels by applying standardized index (Z score) of minimum temperature (MT) in the period of 1951–2019, and also, the frequency of monthly, annual and decadal occurrence of CW was calculated and analyzed. The results showed that there was a decreasing linear trend in distribution of temporal changes of CW. The probability for annual occurrence of CW (which annually reaches 42 times or less) was 99%, and the probability of its occurrence for more than 42 waves was 1%. The trend analysis of time series component represented a significant reduction in the cold waves frequency (CWF) in the study area. Also the results of the trend analysis for the severity levels of occurrence of different cold waves showed that despite the significant reduction in the CWF, none of the classes had a significant trend except the reducing trend of annual cold waves frequency (ACWF). Investigating the decadal condition of CWF displays an increased incidence of CW from 70 s and stepwise reduction in the CWF from the 1981 to 2010, and consequently, the general trend of decadal occurrence of CW was decreasing. The twenty-first-century prediction of the CWF shows the CWF will decrease significantly compared to the long-term average of the twentieth century. The results obtained from the correlation and Morlet wavelet analysis (MWA) between the levels of CW severities with Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) teleconnections indicated that the correlation between CWF is in-phase, positive and incremental.

Keywords: Cold wave; Climate hazard; Teleconnections; Morlet wavelet analysis; Trend analysis; Northwest of Iran (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-023-06391-2 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:120:y:2024:i:5:d:10.1007_s11069-023-06391-2

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11069

DOI: 10.1007/s11069-023-06391-2

Access Statistics for this article

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards is currently edited by Thomas Glade, Tad S. Murty and Vladimír Schenk

More articles in Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards from Springer, International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().